CalSHAPE Cost-Benefit Analysis by Richard Bruns
A cost-benefit analysis of CalSHAPE-funded school HVAC upgrades estimates an average 30x return on investment through improved learning outcomes, reduced infections, and lower asthma burden.
A Cost-Benefit Analysis of CalSHAPE School HVAC Upgrades
by Dr. Richard Bruns, pro bono for Clean Air Allies
Published May 2026
This cost-benefit analysis (CBA) estimates the monetized social benefits of school HVAC repairs, replacements, and upgrades funded by the California Schools Healthy Air, Plumbing, and Efficiency (CalSHAPE) grant program.
Using a Monte Carlo simulation, it finds that benefits are, on average, 30 times the costs, with a 90% confidence interval of 7 to 73 times. Benefits analyzed include educational improvements, reduced secondary transmission of infections, reduced asthma, and reduced infections in children.
Dr. Richard Bruns is an economist specializing in cost-benefit analysis of public health policy and the author of “Cost-Benefit Analysis of ASHRAE Standard 241,” ASHRAE Journal, 65(10) (2023), among other analyses of indoor air quality (IAQ) measures.
The CBA was commissioned by and conducted pro bono for Clean Air Allies.
